Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 31,912
2 Florida 29,028
3 Mississippi 27,871
4 Arizona 27,733
5 Alabama 25,709
6 Georgia 23,945
7 South Carolina 23,111
8 New York 22,591
9 Nevada 22,504
10 Tennessee 22,262
11 Texas 22,083
12 New Jersey 21,812
13 Rhode Island 20,719
14 Iowa 20,681
15 Arkansas 20,287
16 District of Columbia 19,825
17 Illinois 18,756
18 Massachusetts 18,648
19 Idaho 18,049
20 California 18,033
21 Maryland 17,986
22 Delaware 17,898
23 Nebraska 17,724
24 Utah 16,271
25 North Carolina 16,017
26 North Dakota 15,510
27 South Dakota 15,270
28 Kansas 14,899
29 Oklahoma 14,842
30 Connecticut 14,831
31 Indiana 14,300
32 Virginia 14,128
33 Missouri 14,049
34 Wisconsin 13,865
35 Minnesota 13,460
36 New Mexico 12,090
37 Kentucky 11,389
38 Michigan 11,331
39 Pennsylvania 10,845
40 Ohio 10,536
41 Puerto Rico 10,395
42 Washington 10,206
43 Colorado 10,036
44 Alaska 8,304
45 Montana 6,961
46 Wyoming 6,638
47 Oregon 6,335
48 Hawaii 5,965
49 West Virginia 5,719
50 New Hampshire 5,350
51 Maine 3,367
52 Vermont 2,602

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Dakota 373
2 North Dakota 308
3 Alabama 263
4 Iowa 256
5 Missouri 210
6 Oklahoma 208
7 Tennessee 205
8 South Carolina 196
9 Mississippi 185
10 Kansas 182
11 Arkansas 181
12 Minnesota 155
13 Georgia 154
14 North Carolina 153
15 Hawaii 150
16 Illinois 148
17 Nebraska 146
18 Kentucky 145
19 Nevada 144
20 Indiana 143
21 Louisiana 139
22 Texas 135
23 Puerto Rico 126
24 California 119
25 Delaware 118
26 Florida 118
27 Virginia 117
28 Idaho 114
29 Utah 113
30 Montana 110
31 Wisconsin 100
32 Alaska 91
33 Maryland 87
34 Ohio 86
35 Rhode Island 83
36 West Virginia 79
37 District of Columbia 66
38 Michigan 62
39 Washington 57
40 Arizona 53
41 Pennsylvania 52
42 Oregon 51
43 New Mexico 49
44 Massachusetts 45
45 Wyoming 45
46 New Jersey 37
47 Colorado 36
48 Connecticut 35
49 New York 34
50 Maine 22
51 Vermont 18
52 New Hampshire 14

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,795
2 New York 1,672
3 Massachusetts 1,314
4 Connecticut 1,252
5 Louisiana 1,064
6 Rhode Island 989
7 District of Columbia 860
8 Mississippi 830
9 Arizona 691
10 Michigan 676
11 Illinois 651
12 Delaware 621
13 Maryland 621
14 Pennsylvania 604
15 South Carolina 528
16 Florida 520
17 Georgia 518
18 Indiana 489
19 Alabama 445
20 Texas 443
21 Nevada 423
22 New Mexico 371
23 Iowa 354
24 Ohio 354
25 Colorado 338
26 Minnesota 330
27 California 329
28 New Hampshire 317
29 Virginia 302
30 Arkansas 264
31 Missouri 264
32 Washington 263
33 North Carolina 260
34 Tennessee 252
35 Kentucky 216
36 Nebraska 207
37 Idaho 203
38 Oklahoma 202
39 Wisconsin 194
40 North Dakota 192
41 South Dakota 188
42 Kansas 154
43 Puerto Rico 135
44 Utah 127
45 West Virginia 119
46 Oregon 110
47 Maine 98
48 Montana 97
49 Vermont 92
50 Wyoming 63
51 Hawaii 48
52 Alaska 46

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Mississippi 6
2 Alabama 5
3 Arkansas 4
4 Georgia 4
5 South Carolina 4
6 Florida 3
7 Louisiana 3
8 Arizona 2
9 Hawaii 2
10 Tennessee 2
11 Texas 2
12 West Virginia 2
13 California 1
14 Idaho 1
15 Iowa 1
16 Kentucky 1
17 Maryland 1
18 Massachusetts 1
19 Michigan 1
20 Missouri 1
21 Montana 1
22 Nevada 1
23 New Mexico 1
24 North Carolina 1
25 North Dakota 1
26 Oklahoma 1
27 Puerto Rico 1
28 Virginia 1
29 Alaska 0
30 Colorado 0
31 Connecticut 0
32 Delaware 0
33 District of Columbia 0
34 Illinois 0
35 Indiana 0
36 Kansas 0
37 Maine 0
38 Minnesota 0
39 Nebraska 0
40 New Hampshire 0
41 New Jersey 0
42 New York 0
43 Ohio 0
44 Oregon 0
45 Pennsylvania 0
46 Rhode Island 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 143,389 1 99
Lafayette Florida 142,959 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 123,157 3 99
Lake Tennessee 119,299 4 99
Lee Arkansas 113,244 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 37,420 159 94
Richland South Carolina 26,924 362 88
Orange California 15,284 1006 67
York South Carolina 15,104 1030 67
Pierce Washington 8,287 1856 40

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,612 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,412 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,983 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,634 4 99
Neshoba Mississippi 3,434 5 99
Richland South Carolina 471 679 78
Davidson Tennessee 373 875 72
Orange California 309 1037 66
Pierce Washington 200 1404 55
York South Carolina 167 1546 50

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons